Tennis · M15 Nova Gorica · 16/07, 09:30
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Matteo Fondriest
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Matteo Fondriest
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
5-5 (W-L)
Matteo Fondriest
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1537 · Matteo Fondriest 1501
| Luca Castagnola | Matteo Fondriest | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Matteo Fondriest | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-10.3 | 10.6-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.5% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Dominik Recek M25 Kassel |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nazar Oliynykov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Matteo Fondriest
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Jan Hrazdil M15 Nova Gorica |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Nikolai Barsukov M25 Kassel |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Dennis Andre Dutine M25 Kassel |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/06 | Ben Stecker M15 Gyula · ~Clay |
1-1 | 12-10 | W |
| 02/06 | Alexander Weis M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 27/04 | Aditya Vishal Balsekar Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 19/04 | Jean Paul Kadangah Kili Challenger Abidjan · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 15/04 | Loann Massard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/04 | Nick Beamish M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Matteo Fondriest?
Our model gives 70% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.