Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 16/07, 17:00
Prediction: Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka
Prediction summary
Winner
Colton Smith
Hayato Matsuoka
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Colton Smith
6-4 (W-L)
Hayato Matsuoka
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colton Smith 1555 · Hayato Matsuoka 1499
| Colton Smith | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Colton Smith (rating 1555 vs 1499).
- Colton Smith is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Hayato Matsuoka makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Colton Smith | Hayato Matsuoka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 0.9-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-12.1 | 9-11 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 2 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 63% |
| Break % | 52.8% | 43% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 24/06 | Borna Gojo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andy Andrade Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Tyler Zink Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Matisse Farzam Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Jerry Roddick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colton Smith vs Hayato Matsuoka?
Our model gives 68% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.