Prediction: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo Arnaldi
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Agustin Gomez
Matteo Arnaldi
Estimated games
27.9Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Agustin Gomez
4-6 (W-L)
Matteo Arnaldi
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Agustin Gomez 1526 · Matteo Arnaldi 1555
| Federico Agustin Gomez | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 24% | 76% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Federico Agustin Gomez dominates on serve: 9.9 aces and 45.8% break avg.
- Matteo Arnaldi dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 46.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Federico Agustin Gomez | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 2-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.5 | 18.6-18.6 |
| Aces | 9.9 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 65.6% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 45.8% | 46.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
27.9 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +7.4
Over 20.5: 90% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 10% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Agustin Gomez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Niels McDonald ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Raul Brancaccio ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 09/07 | Henry Bernet Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Dalibor Svrcina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Frederico Ferreira Silva French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Matteo Arnaldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Quentin Halys Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 16-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 20/06 | Alastair Gray ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 29-29 | W |
| 30/05 | Raphael Collignon French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 28/05 | Stefanos Tsitsipas French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 24-18 | W |
| 26/05 | Tallon Griekspoor French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-19 | W |
| 10/05 | Rafael Jodar ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 08/05 | Alex De Minaur ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo Arnaldi?
Our model gives 66% to Matteo Arnaldi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.