Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 16/07, 10:30
Prediction: Jaime Faria vs Casper Ruud
Prediction summary
Winner
Jaime Faria
Casper Ruud
Estimated games
28.2Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jaime Faria
7-3 (W-L)
Casper Ruud
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jaime Faria
0–1
Casper Ruud
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jaime Faria 1553 · Casper Ruud 1561
| Jaime Faria | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jaime Faria dominates on serve: 12.4 aces and 48.5% break avg.
- Casper Ruud dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 50.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Jaime Faria 0–1 Casper Ruud (1).
- Note: Jaime Faria makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Jaime Faria | Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.1 | 1.6-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 17-15.2 | 15.7-15.2 |
| Aces | 12.4 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79% | 70.1% |
| Break % | 48.5% | 50.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +7.7
Over 20.5: 91% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 9% · 1.90
H2H · Jaime Faria 0 – 1 Casper Ruud (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jaime Faria 0–1 Casper Ruud
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/24 Davis Cup | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jaime Faria
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Zizou Bergs Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-23 | L |
| 30/06 | Sho Shimabukuro Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-19 | W |
| 25/06 | Rei Sakamoto Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 24/06 | Luka Pavlovic Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Grenier Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Moez Echargui Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/05 | Frances Tiafoe French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 22-29 | L |
| 28/05 | Jan-Lennard Struff French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
Casper Ruud
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Hubert Hurkacz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 31/05 | Joao Fonseca French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 30-28 | W |
| 27/05 | Hamad Medjedovic French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 25/05 | Roman Safiullin French Open · Clay |
3-2 | 24-23 | W |
| 22/05 | Mariano Navone ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/05 | Raphael Collignon ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jaime Faria vs Casper Ruud?
Our model gives 66% to Casper Ruud, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.