Prediction: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Pablo Carreno Busta
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
26.4Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pablo Carreno Busta
7-3 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pablo Carreno Busta
0–1
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pablo Carreno Busta 1547 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1512
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 60% | 40% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Pablo Carreno Busta 0–1 Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1).
Statistics
| Pablo Carreno Busta | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-1.2 | 1.5-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.5-14.1 | 13.6-14.6 |
| Aces | 4.1 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 32.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.4 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.9
Over 21.5: 80% · 1.72
Under 21.5: 20% · 2.00
H2H · Pablo Carreno Busta 0 – 1 Camilo Ugo Carabelli (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pablo Carreno Busta 0–1 Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/25 ATP Rome | 1-2 | 11-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Matej Dodig ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/05 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 12/05 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/05 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Martin Damm ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/04 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 15/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Matteo Berrettini Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 25/04 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pablo Carreno Busta vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 58% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.