Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 16/07, 10:30
Prediction: Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys
Prediction summary
Winner
Alexander Bublik
Quentin Halys
Estimated games
28.1Bet365 line 24.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alexander Bublik
4-6 (W-L)
Quentin Halys
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alexander Bublik 1533 · Quentin Halys 1484
| Alexander Bublik | Quentin Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 70% | 30% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alexander Bublik (rating 1533 vs 1484).
- Quentin Halys dominates on serve: 10 aces and 41.7% break avg.
- Note: Quentin Halys makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alexander Bublik | Quentin Halys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 60% (10) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.4 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 16-16 | 13.8-14.3 |
| Aces | 17.8 | 10 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 26.5% | 41.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.1 · Bet365 line 24.5 · +3.6
Over 24.5: 74% · 1.80
Under 24.5: 26% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alexander Bublik
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 04/07 | Frances Tiafoe Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-27 | W |
| 02/07 | Kyrian Jacquet Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Thanasi Kokkinakis Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-23 | W |
| 16/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Taylor Fritz ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 10/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 06/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Karen Khachanov Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Quentin Halys
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Federico Cina ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 02/07 | Marcos Giron Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Matteo Arnaldi Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 22-16 | W |
| 25/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 20/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/05 | Alexander Zverev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-23 | L |
| 27/05 | Ugo Humbert French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 20-16 | W |
| 24/05 | Mattia Bellucci French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys?
Our model gives 64% to Alexander Bublik, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.