Tennis · ATP Bastad · 15/07, 15:30
Prediction: Daniel Altmaier vs Luciano Darderi
Prediction summary
Winner
Daniel Altmaier
Luciano Darderi
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Daniel Altmaier
5-5 (W-L)
Luciano Darderi
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daniel Altmaier
2–1
Luciano Darderi
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daniel Altmaier 1510 · Luciano Darderi 1504
| Daniel Altmaier | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 36% | 64% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Daniel Altmaier 2–1 Luciano Darderi (3).
- Note: Daniel Altmaier makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Daniel Altmaier | Luciano Darderi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.4 | 1.3-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-14.6 | 13.1-13.4 |
| Aces | 9.7 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 73.7% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 28.4% | 32.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.3
Over 22.5: 72% · 2.00
Under 22.5: 28% · 1.72
H2H · Daniel Altmaier 2 – 1 Luciano Darderi (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daniel Altmaier 2–1 Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/11/24 ATP Belgrade | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06/24 Challenger Perugia | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/09/20 Challenger Cordenons | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daniel Altmaier
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Hugo Gaston ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/07 | Alex Molcan Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 17-22 | L |
| 23/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 17/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/06 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 26/05 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 23-27 | L |
| 21/05 | Tommy Paul ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Luciano Darderi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 25/06 | Nuno Borges ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Francisco Comesana French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 26-25 | L |
| 26/05 | Sebastian Ofner French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 21/05 | Alex De Minaur ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/05 | Rafael Jodar ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daniel Altmaier vs Luciano Darderi?
Our model gives 57% to Luciano Darderi, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.