Tennis · ATP Bastad · 15/07, 12:30
Prediction: Nuno Borges vs Grigor Dimitrov
Prediction summary
Winner
Nuno Borges
Grigor Dimitrov
Estimated games
26.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nuno Borges
7-3 (W-L)
Grigor Dimitrov
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nuno Borges
1–1
Grigor Dimitrov
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nuno Borges 1544 · Grigor Dimitrov 1575
| Nuno Borges | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Grigor Dimitrov makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Nuno Borges | Grigor Dimitrov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (1) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.9-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-11.3 | 16.3-14.3 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 9.7 |
| Double faults | 1 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 75.5% |
| Break % | 31% | 39.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +3.6
Over 22.5: 73% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 27% · 1.90
H2H · Nuno Borges 1 – 1 Grigor Dimitrov (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nuno Borges 1–1 Grigor Dimitrov
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/25 ATP Indian Wells | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/01/24 Australian Open | 3-1 | 25-19 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nuno Borges
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Moise Kouame ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 29/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 26/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Luciano Darderi ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/06 | Jan-Lennard Struff ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/06 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 12/06 | Marin Cilic ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 08/06 | Terence Atmane ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Grigor Dimitrov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Dalibor Svrcina ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 06/07 | Arthur Fery Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 27-27 | L |
| 04/07 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-23 | W |
| 02/07 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-20 | W |
| 30/06 | Dane Sweeny Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Marc Polmans ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Conor Gannon Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nuno Borges vs Grigor Dimitrov?
Our model gives 53% to Nuno Borges, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.