Tennis · ATP Bastad · 16/07, 11:00
Prediction: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Thiago Agustin Tirante
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Nikoloz Basilashvili
6-4 (W-L)
Thiago Agustin Tirante
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikoloz Basilashvili 1486 · Thiago Agustin Tirante 1509
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 30% | 70% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Thiago Agustin Tirante dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 41.3% break avg.
- Note: Nikoloz Basilashvili makes many double faults (5.7/match).
Statistics
| Nikoloz Basilashvili | Thiago Agustin Tirante | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.3-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-12.5 | 13.5-13.2 |
| Aces | 9.5 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 5.7 | 3.5 |
| 1st serve % | 76.3% | 74.3% |
| Break % | 35.3% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikoloz Basilashvili
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Jan Choinski ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Elias Ymer Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 15/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 13/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 06/06 | Marc-Andrea Huesler ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Pedro Boscardin Dias French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 12/05 | Andrey Rublev ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Brandon Nakashima ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Thiago Agustin Tirante
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 24/06 | Toby Samuel ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/05 | Pablo Carreno Busta French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 21-23 | L |
| 27/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-16 | W |
| 24/05 | Pablo Llamas Ruiz French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-16 | W |
| 18/05 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Daniil Medvedev ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Thiago Agustin Tirante?
Our model gives 63% to Thiago Agustin Tirante, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.