Tennis · W75 Vitoria Gasteiz · 15/07, 09:30
Prediction: Melisa Ercan vs Olga Bienzobas Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Melisa Ercan
Olga Bienzobas Fernandez
Estimated games
20.1
Recent form · 10 last
Melisa Ercan
5-5 (W-L)
Olga Bienzobas Fernandez
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melisa Ercan 1548 · Olga Bienzobas Fernandez 1490
| Melisa Ercan | Olga Bienzobas Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Melisa Ercan (rating 1548 vs 1490).
- Melisa Ercan is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Melisa Ercan makes many double faults (4.6/match).
- Note: Olga Bienzobas Fernandez makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Melisa Ercan | Olga Bienzobas Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.8 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-9.3 | 8.9-11.7 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Double faults | 4.6 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 59.9% | 52.1% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 58.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melisa Ercan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Viktoria Hruncakova W35 Don Benito |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Ela Plosnik W35 Don Benito |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/07 | Jodie Anna Burrage W35 Don Benito |
2-0 | 8-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Tiphanie Lemaitre W35 Don Benito |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/07 | Duru Soke W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Irem Kurt W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/07 | Amelie Smejkalova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Nikoletta Muller W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/06 | Eva Panova W15 Kayseri · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/11 | Sofia Shapatava W35 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 0-12 | L |
Olga Bienzobas Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Emma Ottavia Ghirardato W15 Getxo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 08/11 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Fayetteville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 07/11 | Enya Hamilton UTR Pro Fayetteville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/11 | Briley Rhoden UTR Pro Fayetteville Women · Hard |
2-1 | 15-18 | W |
| 04/11 | Jana Stojanova UTR Pro Fayetteville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 03/11 | Jimena Gomez UTR Pro Fayetteville Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 24/09 | Tiphanie Lemaitre ITF W35 Reus · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 23/09 | Lucia Ros Parres ITF W35 Reus · Clay |
2-1 | 12-9 | W |
| 06/09 | Tina Nadine Smith WTA San Sebastian · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Alicia Herrero Linana UTR Pro Charlotte Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melisa Ercan vs Olga Bienzobas Fernandez?
Our model gives 72% to Melisa Ercan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.