Tennis · ATP Bastad · 15/07, 13:20
Prediction: Stefano Travaglia vs Mariano Navone
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Travaglia
Mariano Navone
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 19.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Travaglia
5-5 (W-L)
Mariano Navone
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Travaglia 1503 · Mariano Navone 1513
| Stefano Travaglia | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 21% | 79% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Stefano Travaglia dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 40.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Stefano Travaglia | Mariano Navone | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.7-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.2 | 16.2-13.4 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 66.5% |
| Break % | 40.9% | 36.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 19.5 · +5.1
Over 19.5: 82% · 1.83
Under 19.5: 18% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Travaglia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Martin Krumich ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Yi Zhou Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Luka Mikrut Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Henri Squire Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Mariano Navone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Flavio Cobolli Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 21-21 | L |
| 21/06 | Lorenzo Sonego ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-22 | L |
| 25/05 | Jenson Brooksby French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 23/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 22/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/05 | Jaume Munar ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/05 | Cameron Norrie ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/05 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 11/05 | Hamad Medjedovic ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Travaglia vs Mariano Navone?
Our model gives 67% to Mariano Navone, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.