Tennis · ATP Bastad · 16/07, 11:00
Prediction: Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Tabilo
Lautaro Midon
Estimated games
24.3Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Tabilo
2-8 (W-L)
Lautaro Midon
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alejandro Tabilo
1–0
Lautaro Midon
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Tabilo 1496 · Lautaro Midon 1546
| Alejandro Tabilo | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lautaro Midon (rating 1496 vs 1546).
- Head-to-head: Alejandro Tabilo 1–0 Lautaro Midon (1).
Statistics
| Alejandro Tabilo | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 57% (7) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-13.4 | 13.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 4.5 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 73.7% |
| Break % | 32.1% | 37.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.3 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.8
Over 21.5: 69% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 31% · 1.83
H2H · Alejandro Tabilo 1 – 0 Lautaro Midon (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alejandro Tabilo 1–0 Lautaro Midon
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 Challenger Concepcion | 2-1 | 17-10 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Tabilo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Kamil Majchrzak Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 13-20 | L |
| 23/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Rinky Hijikata ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Felix Auger Aliassime French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 30/05 | Moise Kouame French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-19 | W |
| 26/05 | Kamil Majchrzak French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 16/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/05 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/05 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Lautaro Midon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 13/07 | Igor Marcondes ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 12/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Tabilo vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 59% to Alejandro Tabilo, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.