Tennis · ATP Bastad · 16/07, 11:00
Prediction: Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Rublev
Andrea Pellegrino
Estimated games
26.6Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Rublev
5-5 (W-L)
Andrea Pellegrino
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Rublev 1542 · Andrea Pellegrino 1533
| Andrey Rublev | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 81% | 19% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Andrey Rublev | Andrea Pellegrino | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 75% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-1.3 | 1.4-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.7-15.8 | 12.7-12.3 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 38.4% | 55.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +6.1
Over 20.5: 86% · 1.90
Under 20.5: 14% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Rublev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 26-28 | L |
| 16/06 | Hubert Hurkacz ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Jakub Mensik French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 24-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Nuno Borges French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 21-17 | W |
| 27/05 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 20-16 | W |
| 25/05 | Ignacio Buse French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 25-18 | W |
| 14/05 | Jannik Sinner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/05 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 11/05 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Andrea Pellegrino
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 07/07 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Tristan Boyer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Jay Clarke Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 06/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 05/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/06 | Maks Kasnikowski Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/05 | Flavio Cobolli French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 13-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Rublev vs Andrea Pellegrino?
Our model gives 68% to Andrey Rublev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.