Tennis · M25 Louisville · 14/07, 17:30
Prediction: Adam Faragcao vs Alejandro Moreno
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Faragcao
Alejandro Moreno
Estimated games
19.9
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Faragcao
5-5 (W-L)
Alejandro Moreno
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Faragcao 1482 · Alejandro Moreno 1575
| Adam Faragcao | Alejandro Moreno | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Moreno (rating 1482 vs 1575).
- Alejandro Moreno is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Adam Faragcao | Alejandro Moreno | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.7-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-9.6 | 11.8-8 |
| Aces | 2 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 68.6% |
| Break % | 41.7% | 44.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Faragcao
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Alexander Brown M25 Laval |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Yuta Tomida M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Zhengyu Sun M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-8 | W |
| 19/05 | Jintao Lan M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/05 | Muhammad Shoaib M15 Islamabad · ~Hard |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
| 06/05 | Dmitrii Shirokii M15 Islamabad · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/04 | Vihaan Reddy M15 Boca Raton |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/04 | Dillon Beckles M15 Boca Raton |
2-0 | 8-5 | W |
| 11/03 | Ilija Palavestra M15 Montreal |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/03 | Felix Corwin M15 Sherbrooke |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
Alejandro Moreno
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | David Krasner UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 24/06 | Gabe Avram UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 23/06 | Mason Landreth UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/11 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 02/11 | Pablo Martinez Gomez Challenger Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/10 | Julien Doitteau UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Alex Kuperstein UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/08 | Aleksandr Kalinin UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/08 | Murilo Burckhardt UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/08 | Piotr Siekanowicz UTR Pro Knoxville · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Faragcao vs Alejandro Moreno?
Our model gives 71% to Alejandro Moreno, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.