Prediction: Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Prediction summary
Winner
Marco Trungelliti
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Estimated games
25.7Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marco Trungelliti
5-5 (W-L)
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marco Trungelliti
3–0
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marco Trungelliti 1515 · Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1609
| Marco Trungelliti | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (rating 1515 vs 1609).
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Marco Trungelliti 3–0 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (3).
- Note: Marco Trungelliti makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Marco Trungelliti | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 2.1-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.9-13.1 | 15.6-11.9 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 76.6% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 35.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.7 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +5.2
Over 20.5: 82% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 18% · 1.90
H2H · Marco Trungelliti 3 – 0 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marco Trungelliti 3–0 Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/21 US Open | 3-2 | 30-26 | W |
| 18/09/18 Challenger Biella | 2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 28/03/18 Challenger Marbella | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marco Trungelliti
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Kyrian Jacquet ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Martin Damm Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 22/06 | Jack Pinnington Jones ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Giles Hussey ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/06 | Felix Gill ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 11/06 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 09/06 | Pavel Kotov Challenger Lyon · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 02/06 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Felix Auger Aliassime Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 24-31 | L |
| 03/07 | Marton Fucsovics Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Fabian Marozsan Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/06 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Adam Walton ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 19/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Corentin Moutet ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina?
Our model gives 69% to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.