Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 14/07, 17:00
Prediction: Matthew Forbes vs Sebastian Gorzny
Prediction summary
Winner
Matthew Forbes
Sebastian Gorzny
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Matthew Forbes
5-5 (W-L)
Sebastian Gorzny
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matthew Forbes 1515 · Sebastian Gorzny 1536
| Matthew Forbes | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matthew Forbes dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Note: Matthew Forbes makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Matthew Forbes | Sebastian Gorzny | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.5 | 11.3-11.4 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 76.6% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matthew Forbes
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Trevor Svajda M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Dallas |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Jie Cui M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/02 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Baton Rouge · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/01 | William Grant M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/01 | Dhakshineswar Suresh M25 Winston-Salem · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/11 | Aidan Mchugh ITF M25 East Lansing · Hard |
0-2 | 4-11 | L |
| 06/11 | Sasha Colleu ITF M25 East Lansing · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 05/11 | Vuk Radjenovic ITF M25 East Lansing · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
Sebastian Gorzny
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Landon Ardila M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Joshua Sheehy M25 Dallas |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Enzo Aguiard M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 12/06 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Blake Ellis M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Mikael Arseneault M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/06 | Liam Draxl Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 03/06 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/11 | Loren Byers ITF M25 Columbus · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matthew Forbes vs Sebastian Gorzny?
Our model gives 56% to Sebastian Gorzny, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.