Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 14/07, 18:00
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs Hiroki Moriya
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayato Matsuoka
Hiroki Moriya
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hayato Matsuoka
4-6 (W-L)
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1465 · Hiroki Moriya 1488
| Hayato Matsuoka | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Hayato Matsuoka makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.4 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.5-11.4 | 10.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.8% | 70% |
| Break % | 41.3% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Matisse Farzam Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Jerry Roddick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 05/05 | Maximus Jones Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Hiroki Moriya
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 12/07 | Andreja Petrovic Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 07/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 05/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/06 | Edward Winter Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Hoyoung Roh M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Uisung Park M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/06 | Seongwoo Cho M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-0 | 6-2 | W |
| 01/06 | Aidan Kim Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Timo Legout Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs Hiroki Moriya?
Our model gives 53% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.