Tennis · M15 Nova Gorica · 15/07, 10:00
Prediction: Luca Castagnola vs Edoardo Cherie Ligniere
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castagnola
Edoardo Cherie Ligniere
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castagnola
4-6 (W-L)
Edoardo Cherie Ligniere
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castagnola 1529 · Edoardo Cherie Ligniere 1480
| Luca Castagnola | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castagnola (rating 1529 vs 1480).
Statistics
| Luca Castagnola | Edoardo Cherie Ligniere | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 56% (9) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11 | 7.8-9.1 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 0.5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 62.1% | 55.3% |
| Break % | 37.3% | 38.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castagnola
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Dominik Recek M25 Kassel |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Matyas Cerny M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/07 | Jonas Kucera M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/07 | Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/07 | Mak Mikovic M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 18/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Nazar Oliynykov M25 Samobor · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 07/06 | Francesco Forti Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 04/06 | Jan Kupcic M15 Ljubljana · ~Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Edoardo Cherie Ligniere
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Marcel Kamrowski M15 Lodz |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Lorenzo Angelini M15 Umag · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Glib Sekachov M15 Umag · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Lucio Ratti M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Piet Luis Pinter M15 Slovenska Bistrica · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 18/06 | Sebastian Gima M15 Constanta · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/06 | Kai Thompson M15 Constanta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Edoardo De Filippo M15 Constanta · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 09/06 | Matei Florin Breazu M15 Curtea de Arges · ~Clay |
0-2 | 0-8 | L |
| 21/05 | Andrea Fiorentini M15 Litija · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castagnola vs Edoardo Cherie Ligniere?
Our model gives 61% to Luca Castagnola, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.