Tennis · ATP Gstaad · 15/07, 10:30
Prediction: Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego
Prediction summary
Winner
Raphael Collignon
Lorenzo Sonego
Estimated games
28.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Raphael Collignon
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Sonego
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Raphael Collignon 1516 · Lorenzo Sonego 1502
| Raphael Collignon | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Raphael Collignon makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Raphael Collignon | Lorenzo Sonego | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 57% (7) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1.2 | 1.4-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-14 | 15.6-16.3 |
| Aces | 10 | 9.5 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.2% | 74.1% |
| Break % | 38.8% | 36.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
28.2 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +5.7
Over 22.5: 84% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 16% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Raphael Collignon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Timofey Skatov ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 30/06 | Arthur Fils Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 9-19 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 19/06 | Alexander Zverev ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/06 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Halle · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Alexei Popyrin ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/06 | Roberto Bautista-Agut ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/05 | Matteo Arnaldi French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 28-30 | L |
| 28/05 | Ben Shelton French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-13 | W |
Lorenzo Sonego
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Gstaad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/07 | Taylor Fritz Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 19-23 | L |
| 02/07 | Gabriel Diallo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 30-27 | W |
| 30/06 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 25-21 | W |
| 23/06 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 21/06 | Mariano Navone ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ben Shelton ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Filip Cristian Jianu ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Tommy Paul French Open · Clay |
0-3 | 9-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Raphael Collignon vs Lorenzo Sonego?
Our model gives 58% to Raphael Collignon, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.