Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 12:00
Prediction: Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Lautaro Midon
Prediction summary
Winner
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Lautaro Midon
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Facundo Diaz Acosta
7-3 (W-L)
Lautaro Midon
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Facundo Diaz Acosta
1–0
Lautaro Midon
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1639 · Lautaro Midon 1569
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 76% | 24% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (rating 1639 vs 1569).
- Head-to-head: Facundo Diaz Acosta 1–0 Lautaro Midon (1).
Statistics
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-9.6 | 13-11 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 75.1% |
| Break % | 40.5% | 38.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.3
Over 20.5: 66% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 34% · 1.90
H2H · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1 – 0 Lautaro Midon (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1–0 Lautaro Midon
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/22 Challenger Buenos Aires | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 10/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/07 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Marco Cecchinato Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 04/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniele Rapagnetta Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/06 | Alexis Galarneau Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Lautaro Midon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Igor Marcondes ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 12/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 69% to Facundo Diaz Acosta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.