Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 12:10
Prediction: Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel
Prediction summary
Winner
Botic Van De Zandschulp
Taro Daniel
Estimated games
24.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Botic Van De Zandschulp
4-6 (W-L)
Taro Daniel
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Botic Van De Zandschulp 1477 · Taro Daniel 1608
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 64% | 36% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taro Daniel (rating 1477 vs 1608).
- Botic Van De Zandschulp dominates on serve: 7.7 aces and 40.6% break avg.
- Taro Daniel is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Botic Van De Zandschulp makes many double faults (5/match).
Statistics
| Botic Van De Zandschulp | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (5) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.6 | 1.9-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.4-15.6 | 12.5-8.1 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 2.6 |
| Double faults | 5 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.2% | 66.2% |
| Break % | 40.6% | 58.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.9
Over 22.5: 63% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 37% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Botic Van De Zandschulp
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Roman Safiullin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 21-26 | L |
| 29/06 | Aleksandar Kovacevic Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-14 | W |
| 18/06 | Tommy Paul ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Queens · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/06 | Tallon Griekspoor ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Francisco Cerundolo French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 18-24 | L |
| 10/05 | Karen Khachanov ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 08/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 06/05 | Alexandre Muller ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/04 | Francisco Cerundolo ATP Munich · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Taro Daniel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Carlos Sanchez Jover ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/07 | Federico Coria ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Valentin Royer Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/07 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Taro Daniel?
Our model gives 51% to Taro Daniel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.