Tennis · ATP Bastad · 14/07, 13:10
Prediction: Stefano Travaglia vs Martin Krumich
Prediction summary
Winner
Stefano Travaglia
Martin Krumich
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Stefano Travaglia
5-5 (W-L)
Martin Krumich
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Stefano Travaglia
0–1
Martin Krumich
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stefano Travaglia 1495 · Martin Krumich 1536
| Stefano Travaglia | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martin Krumich (rating 1495 vs 1536).
- Head-to-head: Stefano Travaglia 0–1 Martin Krumich (1).
Statistics
| Stefano Travaglia | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.2 | 12.1-11.7 |
| Aces | 6.2 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 73.5% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 39.5% | 40.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1
Over 22.5: 57% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 43% · 1.80
H2H · Stefano Travaglia 0 – 1 Martin Krumich (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stefano Travaglia 0–1 Martin Krumich
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/25 Challenger Bunschoten | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stefano Travaglia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Yi Zhou Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Luka Mikrut Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 17/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 16/06 | Petr Bar Biryukov Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/06 | Pierluigi Basile Challenger Perugia · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 30/05 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 29/05 | Diego Dedura-Palomero Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 27/05 | Henri Squire Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 26/05 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Martin Krumich
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07 | Francesco Passaro ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Alan Wazny Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 09/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stefano Travaglia vs Martin Krumich?
Our model gives 55% to Martin Krumich, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.