Prediction: Federico Agustin Gomez vs Niels McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Agustin Gomez
Niels McDonald
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Agustin Gomez
3-7 (W-L)
Niels McDonald
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Agustin Gomez 1489 · Niels McDonald 1537
| Federico Agustin Gomez | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Niels McDonald (rating 1489 vs 1537).
- Federico Agustin Gomez dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 44.2% break avg.
- Niels McDonald is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Niels McDonald makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Federico Agustin Gomez | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 44% (9) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.5 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12.8 | 11.5-9.6 |
| Aces | 9.3 | 2 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 64.1% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 44.2% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 23.5 · -1.2
Over 23.5: 42% · 1.90
Under 23.5: 58% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Agustin Gomez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Andrea Guerrieri ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 11/07 | Raul Brancaccio ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 09/07 | Henry Bernet Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Stefanos Sakellaridis Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/05 | Dalibor Svrcina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Frederico Ferreira Silva French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 13/05 | Laurent Lokoli Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Niels McDonald
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 25/06 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Francesco Passaro Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 14/06 | Sandro Kopp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Aristotelis Thanos M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Anton Shepp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Agustin Gomez vs Niels McDonald?
Our model gives 52% to Niels McDonald, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.