Prediction: Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Prediction summary
Winner
Marko Topo
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Estimated games
24.5Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marko Topo
4-6 (W-L)
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marko Topo 1480 · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1510
| Marko Topo | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Marko Topo makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Marko Topo | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-13.2 | 12.9-13.7 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 66.4% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 30.6% | 32.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.5 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +3
Over 21.5: 70% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 30% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Lukas Neumayer ATP Umag · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Kamil Majchrzak ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 15/05 | Miomir Kecmanovic Challenger Valencia · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Matteo Berrettini Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/05 | Alexander Shevchenko ATP Rome · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 25/04 | Flavio Cobolli ATP Madrid · Clay |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 23/04 | Gael Monfils ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli?
Our model gives 64% to Camilo Ugo Carabelli, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.