Tennis · Challenger Granby · 13/07, 16:00
Prediction: Mikael Arseneault vs Guillaume Dalmasso
Prediction summary
Winner
Mikael Arseneault
Guillaume Dalmasso
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Mikael Arseneault
4-6 (W-L)
Guillaume Dalmasso
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mikael Arseneault
1–0
Guillaume Dalmasso
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mikael Arseneault 1494 · Guillaume Dalmasso 1560
| Mikael Arseneault | Guillaume Dalmasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guillaume Dalmasso (rating 1494 vs 1560).
- Guillaume Dalmasso dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 53.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Mikael Arseneault 1–0 Guillaume Dalmasso (1).
- Note: Guillaume Dalmasso makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Mikael Arseneault | Guillaume Dalmasso | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.6 | 12.6-10.9 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 6.1 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 81.2% |
| Break % | 36.7% | 53.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Mikael Arseneault 1 – 0 Guillaume Dalmasso (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mikael Arseneault 1–0 Guillaume Dalmasso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11/25 Challenger Drummondville | 2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Oliver Ojakaar M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/11 | Liam Draxl Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 10/11 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 09/11 | Ben Jones Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Guillaume Dalmasso
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Volodymyr Gurenko Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Luc Fomba M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 01/07 | Valentin Lapalu M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/06 | Filip Peliwo M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/06 | Tom Zeuch M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 11/06 | Petros Tsitsipas M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-7 | W |
| 10/06 | Sten Hiiesalu M15 Vaasa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 03/06 | Arda Azkara Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mikael Arseneault vs Guillaume Dalmasso?
Our model gives 57% to Guillaume Dalmasso, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.