Tennis · Challenger Granby · 18/07, 17:30
Prediction: Murphy Cassone vs Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Murphy Cassone
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
25.3
Recent form · 10 last
Murphy Cassone
5-5 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Murphy Cassone 1496 · Arthur Gea 1529
| Murphy Cassone | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 9.3 aces and 48.4% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Murphy Cassone | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 25% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.2 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.6-12.5 | 13.3-10.7 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 9.3 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 52.9% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Murphy Cassone
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 16/07 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Alex Molcan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Filippo Romano ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 03/06 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Raul Brancaccio Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Billy Harris Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 15/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Murphy Cassone vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 59% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.