Tennis · Challenger Granby · 19/07, 20:30
Prediction: Aleksandar Vukic vs Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Aleksandar Vukic
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Aleksandar Vukic
6-4 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aleksandar Vukic 1498 · Arthur Gea 1542
| Aleksandar Vukic | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1498 vs 1542).
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 8.4 aces and 48.9% break avg.
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (5.1/match).
Statistics
| Aleksandar Vukic | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-13 | 13.3-10.7 |
| Aces | 7.7 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 5.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 75.6% |
| Break % | 30.4% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aleksandar Vukic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 16/07 | Nicolas Arseneault Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Jenson Brooksby Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 8-19 | L |
| 23/06 | Jenson Brooksby ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 21/06 | Hamish Stewart ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 20/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 17/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Raul Brancaccio Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Billy Harris Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aleksandar Vukic vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 58% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.