Tennis · Challenger Granby · 17/07, 19:00
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Arthur Gea
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Arthur Gea
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
6-4 (W-L)
Arthur Gea
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Liam Draxl
0–1
Arthur Gea
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1513 · Arthur Gea 1569
| Liam Draxl | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 35% | 65% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arthur Gea (rating 1513 vs 1569).
- Arthur Gea dominates on serve: 8.9 aces and 42.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Liam Draxl 0–1 Arthur Gea (1).
- Note: Arthur Gea makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Arthur Gea | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 100% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-9.9 | 13.1-10.2 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 8.9 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 4.8 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 77.1% |
| Break % | 34.6% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
H2H · Liam Draxl 0 – 1 Arthur Gea (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Liam Draxl 0–1 Arthur Gea
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/26 Challenger Noumea | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | James Trotter Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Arseneault M25 Laval |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Stephen Slocombe M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 05/06 | Braden Shick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Sebastian Gorzny Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Arthur Gea
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Fajing Sun Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 08/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Soonwoo Kwon Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Raul Brancaccio Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 17/06 | Billy Harris Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 15/06 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 12/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Monastir · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Arthur Gea?
Our model gives 62% to Arthur Gea, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.