Tennis · ATP Bastad · 13/07, 13:30
Prediction: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel
Prediction summary
Winner
Carlos Sanchez Jover
Taro Daniel
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Carlos Sanchez Jover
2-8 (W-L)
Taro Daniel
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Carlos Sanchez Jover
0–1
Taro Daniel
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carlos Sanchez Jover 1491 · Taro Daniel 1631
| Carlos Sanchez Jover | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 31% | 69% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Taro Daniel (rating 1491 vs 1631).
- Taro Daniel is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Carlos Sanchez Jover 0–1 Taro Daniel (1).
Statistics
| Carlos Sanchez Jover | Taro Daniel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-13.6 | 12.3-7.8 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 57.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.3
Over 21.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 41% · 1.83
H2H · Carlos Sanchez Jover 0 – 1 Taro Daniel (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carlos Sanchez Jover 0–1 Taro Daniel
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Challenger Valencia | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carlos Sanchez Jover
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Liege · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Max Alcala Gurri Challenger Royan · Clay |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 17/06 | Emilien Demanet Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/06 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 11/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Matej Dodig Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/06 | Manuel Mazza Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 07/06 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 24/05 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/05 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Istanbul · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Taro Daniel
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Federico Coria ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 10/07 | Valentin Royer Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 09/07 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/07 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/06 | Alexander Shevchenko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 12/06 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 11/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/06 | Timofey Skatov Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Taro Daniel?
Our model gives 68% to Taro Daniel, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.