Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: Colton Smith vs Andre Ilagan
Prediction summary
Winner
Colton Smith
Andre Ilagan
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Colton Smith
7-3 (W-L)
Andre Ilagan
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Colton Smith
4–0
Andre Ilagan
(4 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Colton Smith 1565 · Andre Ilagan 1542
| Colton Smith | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Colton Smith 4–0 Andre Ilagan (4).
Statistics
| Colton Smith | Andre Ilagan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.9 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-11.1 | 12.5-12 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 54.3% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Colton Smith 4 – 0 Andre Ilagan (4)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Colton Smith 4–0 Andre Ilagan
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/26 Challenger Little Rock | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 29/10/24 Challenger Charlottesville | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07/24 ITF M25 Champaign | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 27/06/24 M15 Los Angeles | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Colton Smith
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-22 | L |
| 24/06 | Borna Gojo Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andy Andrade Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/05 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/05 | Tyler Zink Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Andre Ilagan
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Connor Plunkett Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 07/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 05/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 04/06 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 03/06 | Fajing Sun Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Colton Smith vs Andre Ilagan?
Our model gives 64% to Colton Smith, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.