Tennis · Challenger Lincoln · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: Rio Noguchi vs Charles Broom
Prediction summary
Winner
Rio Noguchi
Charles Broom
Estimated games
24.6
Recent form · 10 last
Rio Noguchi
2-8 (W-L)
Charles Broom
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rio Noguchi 1465 · Charles Broom 1504
| Rio Noguchi | Charles Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Rio Noguchi dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 46.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Rio Noguchi | Charles Broom | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 43% (7) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-13.7 | 11.6-10.3 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 7.5 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| 1st serve % | 60.4% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 25.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Nardi Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Clement Tabur Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 08/06 | Keegan Smith Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 07/06 | Patrick Brady Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 19/05 | Francesco Maestrelli French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 08/05 | Jie Cui Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
Charles Broom
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06 | Marcos Giron ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Titouan Droguet Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Andrea Guerrieri Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/06 | Dylan Leeman Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 10/06 | Henrique Rocha Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Daniel Evans Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 07/06 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/06 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | James Beaven Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/05 | Ugo Blanchet French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rio Noguchi vs Charles Broom?
Our model gives 59% to Charles Broom, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.