Tennis · Challenger Granby · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate
Prediction summary
Winner
Murphy Cassone
Tristan Schoolkate
Estimated games
25.1
Recent form · 10 last
Murphy Cassone
5-5 (W-L)
Tristan Schoolkate
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Murphy Cassone
0–1
Tristan Schoolkate
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Murphy Cassone 1459 · Tristan Schoolkate 1502
| Murphy Cassone | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tristan Schoolkate (rating 1459 vs 1502).
- Head-to-head: Murphy Cassone 0–1 Tristan Schoolkate (1).
Statistics
| Murphy Cassone | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 25% (4) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.4 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.9 | 12.8-12.9 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 13.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 42% | 33.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.1
H2H · Murphy Cassone 0 – 1 Tristan Schoolkate (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Murphy Cassone 0–1 Tristan Schoolkate
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 ATP Delray Beach | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Murphy Cassone
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Ethan Quinn ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 21/06 | Alex Molcan ATP Mallorca · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 20/06 | Filippo Romano ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/06 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 03/06 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/05 | Ronald Hohmann Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 14/04 | Liam Broady Challenger Busan · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 17/03 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Miami · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 17/03 | Francesco Maestrelli ATP Miami · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Tristan Schoolkate
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 08/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Daniel Evans Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 22/06 | Johannus Monday Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/06 | Oliver Tarvet Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/06 | Arthur Fery Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Darwin Blanch French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Kimmer Coppejans French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate?
Our model gives 57% to Tristan Schoolkate, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.