Tennis · Challenger Granby · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Friend
Prediction summary
Winner
Yuta Shimizu
Jay Friend
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Yuta Shimizu
6-4 (W-L)
Jay Friend
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yuta Shimizu 1506 · Jay Friend 1562
| Yuta Shimizu | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jay Friend (rating 1506 vs 1562).
Statistics
| Yuta Shimizu | Jay Friend | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 56% (9) | 67% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-13.8 | 13-10.8 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70% | 71.8% |
| Break % | 37.9% | 48.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yuta Shimizu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07 | Ryan Colby M25 Laval |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Dan Martin Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 03/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 27/05 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 25/05 | Andres Martin Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/05 | Evan Zhu Challenger Wuxi · Hard |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
Jay Friend
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Strong Kirchheimer M25 Laval |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Cole Thurgur M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/07 | Eloi Roux M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 29/06 | Justin Boulais Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/06 | Charlie Camus Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yuta Shimizu vs Jay Friend?
Our model gives 60% to Jay Friend, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.