Tennis · Challenger Granby · 14/07, 16:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Yosuke Watanuki
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Yosuke Watanuki
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
4-6 (W-L)
Yosuke Watanuki
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
August Holmgren
1–0
Yosuke Watanuki
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1473 · Yosuke Watanuki 1540
| August Holmgren | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yosuke Watanuki (rating 1473 vs 1540).
- Yosuke Watanuki dominates on serve: 8.7 aces and 51.8% break avg.
- Head-to-head: August Holmgren 1–0 Yosuke Watanuki (1).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Yosuke Watanuki | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 40% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-12.1 | 11.6-9.5 |
| Aces | 6.8 | 8.7 |
| Double faults | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.9% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 27.9% | 51.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · August Holmgren 1 – 0 Yosuke Watanuki (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · August Holmgren 1–0 Yosuke Watanuki
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/25 Wimbledon | 3-2 | 29-29 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Liam Broady Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Jay Clarke Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 13/06 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Toby Samuel Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 01/06 | James Watt Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Yosuke Watanuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 08/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Federico Cina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Florian Broska Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/03 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/02 | Sebastian Ofner Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 20/01 | Omar Jasika Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Yosuke Watanuki?
Our model gives 51% to Yosuke Watanuki, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.