Tennis · ATP Bastad · 13/07, 11:00
Prediction: Igor Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon
Prediction summary
Winner
Igor Marcondes
Lautaro Midon
Estimated games
24Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Igor Marcondes
6-4 (W-L)
Lautaro Midon
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Igor Marcondes 1534 · Lautaro Midon 1549
| Igor Marcondes | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Igor Marcondes | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-12.4 | 12.9-10.5 |
| Aces | 3.4 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 73% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 34.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.5
Over 22.5: 60% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 40% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Igor Marcondes
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Gonzalo Bueno ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Filip Jeff Planinsek Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 25/03 | Alex Barrena Challenger Sao Paulo · Clay |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
| 11/03 | Nicolas Moreno De Alboran Challenger Santiago · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 10/03 | Jaime Faria Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/03 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/03 | Milledge Cossu Challenger Santiago · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Lautaro Midon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | William Rejchtman Vinciguerra ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 10/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/06 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Igor Marcondes vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 55% to Lautaro Midon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.