Tennis · ATP Bastad · 13/07, 11:00
Prediction: Francesco Passaro vs Martin Krumich
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Passaro
Martin Krumich
Estimated games
23.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Passaro
7-3 (W-L)
Martin Krumich
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Passaro 1483 · Martin Krumich 1527
| Francesco Passaro | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Martin Krumich (rating 1483 vs 1527).
Statistics
| Francesco Passaro | Martin Krumich | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.5 | 12.4-12.1 |
| Aces | 2.4 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66.3% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 41.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.1
Over 21.5: 64% · 1.80
Under 21.5: 36% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Passaro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Maks Kasnikowski ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Niels McDonald Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/02 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 17/02 | Dino Prizmic ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/02 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Martin Krumich
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Samuele Pieri Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Felix Balshaw Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 24/06 | Marko Topo Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 17/06 | Joao Lucas Reis da Silva Challenger Poznan · Clay |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Alan Wazny Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-1 | 17-17 | W |
| 09/06 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Mathys Erhard Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Passaro vs Martin Krumich?
Our model gives 53% to Francesco Passaro, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.