Prediction: Matej Dodig vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Prediction summary
Winner
Matej Dodig
Pablo Carreno Busta
Estimated games
26.1Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matej Dodig
5-5 (W-L)
Pablo Carreno Busta
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matej Dodig 1538 · Pablo Carreno Busta 1541
| Matej Dodig | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matej Dodig dominates on serve: 8 aces and 41.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Matej Dodig | Pablo Carreno Busta | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-13.3 | 15-14.9 |
| Aces | 8 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 41.6% | 43.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
26.1 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.6
Over 21.5: 79% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 21% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matej Dodig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Hugo Dellien Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 11/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Michele Ribecai Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 06/07 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 24/06 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 09/06 | Carlos Sanchez Jover Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
Pablo Carreno Busta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 22-22 | L |
| 31/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 17-26 | L |
| 29/05 | Thiago Agustin Tirante French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 23-21 | W |
| 25/05 | Jiri Lehecka French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 14/05 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 12/05 | Francisco Comesana Challenger Valencia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/05 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Martin Damm ATP Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/04 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Madrid · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/04 | Marton Fucsovics ATP Madrid · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matej Dodig vs Pablo Carreno Busta?
Our model gives 62% to Pablo Carreno Busta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.