Tennis · Challenger Newport · 12/07, 20:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Adam Walton
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Adam Walton
Estimated games
25.6
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
3-7 (W-L)
Adam Walton
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1549 · Adam Walton 1567
| Jacob Fearnley | Adam Walton | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 49% | 51% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Adam Walton | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 70% (10) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.4 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.2-13.1 | 13-10.6 |
| Aces | 4.7 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 77% |
| Break % | 43.1% | 36.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 09/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/07 | Jaume Munar Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex Michelsen Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 25-19 | W |
| 17/06 | Benjamin Bonzi Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 14/06 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Adam Walton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Antoine Ghibaudo ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Federico Bondioli ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Adam Walton?
Our model gives 52% to Adam Walton, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.