Tennis · Challenger Newport · 11/07, 17:00
Prediction: Adam Walton vs Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Adam Walton
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
25.6
Recent form · 10 last
Adam Walton
8-2 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Adam Walton 1553 · Alex Michelsen 1555
| Adam Walton | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 39% | 61% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 53% break avg.
Statistics
| Adam Walton | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (9) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 2.1-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13-10.2 | 15.9-13.3 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 6.1 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.9% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 36.1% | 53% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Adam Walton
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 09/07 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Dino Prizmic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-23 | L |
| 24/06 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Nick Kyrgios ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Antoine Ghibaudo ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Federico Bondioli ATP Mallorca · Grass |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 13/06 | Harry Wendelken ATP Queens · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 07/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
| 27/05 | Nishesh Basavareddy French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 25/05 | Alexander Shevchenko French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Sebastian Baez ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Adam Walton vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 56% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.