Tennis · Challenger Newport · 10/07, 18:30
Prediction: Liam Broady vs Alex Michelsen
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Broady
Alex Michelsen
Estimated games
25
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Broady
5-5 (W-L)
Alex Michelsen
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Broady 1499 · Alex Michelsen 1529
| Liam Broady | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Alex Michelsen dominates on serve: 6 aces and 49.7% break avg.
Statistics
| Liam Broady | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (4) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 1.9-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.6 | 15.2-13.6 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 6 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 70.1% | 69.3% |
| Break % | 33.8% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Broady
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 17-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 22/06 | August Holmgren Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 13/06 | Zachary Svajda ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 10/06 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/06 | Ioannis Xilas Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/06 | Daniel Merida Aguilar Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/06 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Alex Michelsen
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Jason Jung Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Jacob Fearnley Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 19-25 | L |
| 29/05 | Rafael Jodar French Open · Clay |
2-3 | 25-29 | L |
| 27/05 | Nishesh Basavareddy French Open · Clay |
3-1 | 22-18 | W |
| 25/05 | Alexander Shevchenko French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 18-8 | W |
| 21/05 | Learner Tien ATP Geneva · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 20/05 | Stan Wawrinka ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 18/05 | Sebastian Baez ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/05 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Broady vs Alex Michelsen?
Our model gives 68% to Alex Michelsen, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.