Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 12/07, 18:00
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Matias Soto
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Matias Soto
Estimated games
25.3
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
8-2 (W-L)
Matias Soto
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Mejia
2–1
Matias Soto
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1590 · Matias Soto 1557
| Nicolas Mejia | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Nicolas Mejia dominates on serve: 6.4 aces and 42.9% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Nicolas Mejia 2–1 Matias Soto (3).
- Note: Matias Soto makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (4) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.9 | 1.7-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.9-12.8 | 13.3-12.2 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 42.9% | 45.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.3
H2H · Nicolas Mejia 2 – 1 Matias Soto (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Mejia 2–1 Matias Soto
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 Challenger San Luis Potosi | 2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 31/03/24 Challenger San Luis Potosi | 2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 30/04/17 ITF USA F16 | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 25/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Gustavo Heide Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Henrique Rocha Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Yi Zhou Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Matias Soto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 10/07 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Mwendwa Mbithi Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Santiago De La Fuente Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Matias Soto?
Our model gives 60% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.