Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 10/07, 19:00
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Hernan Casanova
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Hernan Casanova
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
7-3 (W-L)
Hernan Casanova
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Mejia
1–1
Hernan Casanova
(2 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1566 · Hernan Casanova 1576
| Nicolas Mejia | Hernan Casanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Nicolas Mejia dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 45% break avg.
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Hernan Casanova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (2) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1.1 | 1.6-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.4-13.6 | 12-9.8 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 64.3% |
| Break % | 45% | 52.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
H2H · Nicolas Mejia 1 – 1 Hernan Casanova (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Mejia 1–1 Hernan Casanova
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/22 Challenger Coquimbo | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 22/04/21 Challenger Salinas | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 25/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Gustavo Heide Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Henrique Rocha Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Yi Zhou Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/06 | Karl Poling Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Hernan Casanova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 04/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Mario Andre Galarraga Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 26/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 23/06 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Hernan Casanova?
Our model gives 54% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.