Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 10/07, 17:00
Prediction: Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Claverie
Prediction summary
Winner
Facundo Mena
Lorenzo Claverie
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Facundo Mena
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Claverie
10-0 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Mena 1505 · Lorenzo Claverie 1596
| Facundo Mena | Lorenzo Claverie | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Claverie (rating 1505 vs 1596).
- Lorenzo Claverie dominates on serve: 11.2 aces and 48.7% break avg.
- Lorenzo Claverie is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Lorenzo Claverie makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Facundo Mena | Lorenzo Claverie | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (10) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-11.4 | 13.7-10.2 |
| Aces | 5.6 | 11.2 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 78.2% |
| Break % | 39.7% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Mena
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Tristan McCormick Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 30/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Santos · Clay |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 05/05 | Daniel Dutra Da Silva Challenger Santos · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/04 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Santa Cruz · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 07/04 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Mexico City · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 03/04 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 01/04 | Patrick Zahraj Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/03 | Stefano Napolitano Challenger San Luis Potosi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Lorenzo Claverie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Nick Hardt Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/07 | Christopher Papa Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/06 | Jack Satterfield M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Liam Krall M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Rafael Botran Neutze Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Paulo Pocasangre Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/06 | Marko Mesarovic Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Mena vs Lorenzo Claverie?
Our model gives 51% to Lorenzo Claverie, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.