Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 65% to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida; the market gives 58% to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida (odds 1.61).
Over their last 10 matches, Juan Pablo Varillas sits at 5-5 (W-L), while Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida arrives on a 9-1 run.
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida (rating 1522 vs 1628).
- Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Juan Pablo Varillas 2–1 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida (3).
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.9-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.6 | 14.6-10.1 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.9% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 51.8% |
H2H · Juan Pablo Varillas 2 – 1 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juan Pablo Varillas 2–1 Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/25 Challenger Campinas | 2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 10/03/25 Challenger Santiago | 1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 11/03/22 Challenger Santiago | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Campinas · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/04 | Victor Braga Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/04 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/03 | Carlos Maria Zarate Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 05/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 04/07 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 01/07 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 26/06 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/06 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida?
Our model gives 61% to Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.