Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 11/07, 18:30
Prediction: Nicolas Mejia vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Nicolas Mejia
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
24.4
Recent form · 10 last
Nicolas Mejia
8-2 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Nicolas Mejia
1–2
Juan Pablo Varillas
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nicolas Mejia 1584 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1523
| Nicolas Mejia | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1584 vs 1523).
- Head-to-head: Nicolas Mejia 1–2 Juan Pablo Varillas (3).
Statistics
| Nicolas Mejia | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (3) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.9 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-12.9 | 11.9-10.9 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.5% | 69.5% |
| Break % | 45.5% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.4
H2H · Nicolas Mejia 1 – 2 Juan Pablo Varillas (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nicolas Mejia 1–2 Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/25 Challenger Bogota | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 21/10/22 Challenger Ambato | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/05/19 M25 Pensacola | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/07 | Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Fermin Tenti Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-25 | L |
| 29/06 | Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-21 | W |
| 25/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Gustavo Heide Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Henrique Rocha Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 17/06 | Yi Zhou Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 01/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Dmitry Popko Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 05/05 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Santos · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 10/04 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Campinas · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 08/04 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/04 | Victor Braga Challenger Campinas · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/04 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nicolas Mejia vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 61% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.