Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 11/07, 17:00
Prediction: Matias Soto vs Lorenzo Claverie
Prediction summary
Winner
Matias Soto
Lorenzo Claverie
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Matias Soto
9-1 (W-L)
Lorenzo Claverie
10-0 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matias Soto 1563 · Lorenzo Claverie 1602
| Matias Soto | Lorenzo Claverie | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 61% | 39% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Lorenzo Claverie dominates on serve: 11.3 aces and 41.2% break avg.
- Note: Matias Soto makes many double faults (4.1/match).
- Note: Lorenzo Claverie makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Matias Soto | Lorenzo Claverie | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 70% (10) | 100% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-1 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-11.9 | 13.9-10.8 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 11.3 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 70.5% | 76.7% |
| Break % | 48.5% | 41.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matias Soto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Lucas Andrade da Silva Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 08/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Mwendwa Mbithi Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Santiago De La Fuente Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Lorenzo Claverie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Nick Hardt Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/07 | Christopher Papa Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/06 | Jack Satterfield M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Liam Krall M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/06 | Rafael Botran Neutze Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/06 | Paulo Pocasangre Davis Cup |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matias Soto vs Lorenzo Claverie?
Our model gives 53% to Matias Soto, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.