Tennis · Challenger Bogota · 09/07, 17:00
Prediction: Lucas Andrade da Silva vs Matias Soto
Our model (Elo on clay, opponent-adjusted) gives 56% to Lucas Andrade da Silva; the market gives 50% to Lucas Andrade da Silva (odds 1.83).
Recent form leaves Lucas Andrade da Silva with 7 wins and 3 losses over 10 games; Matias Soto has piled up 8-2 in the same span.
53%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lucas Andrade da Silva 1585 · Matias Soto 1541
| Lucas Andrade da Silva | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lucas Andrade da Silva (rating 1585 vs 1541).
- Lucas Andrade da Silva dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 45.4% break avg.
- Note: Matias Soto makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lucas Andrade da Silva | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-8.5 | 12-11.9 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 4 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 75.8% | 67.5% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 45.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lucas Andrade da Silva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 07/07 | Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/07 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/07 | Segundo Goity Zapico Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Federico Zeballos Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/06 | Jorge Ruiz Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 26/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 25/06 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Matias Soto
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Alan Magadan Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 01/07 | Juan Sebastian Osorio Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Mwendwa Mbithi Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
| 26/06 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 22/06 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/06 | Nick Hardt Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
1-2 | 7-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Santiago De La Fuente Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 16/06 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/06 | Juan Estevez Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lucas Andrade da Silva vs Matias Soto?
Our model gives 53% to Lucas Andrade da Silva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.