Prediction: Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo
Prediction summary
Winner
Lukas Neumayer
Marko Topo
Estimated games
22.8Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Lukas Neumayer
6-4 (W-L)
Marko Topo
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lukas Neumayer 1538 · Marko Topo 1433
| Lukas Neumayer | Marko Topo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lukas Neumayer (rating 1538 vs 1433).
- Lukas Neumayer is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Marko Topo makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Lukas Neumayer | Marko Topo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 0.8-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.5 | 10.4-13.3 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 66.6% | 64% |
| Break % | 40.1% | 29.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +2.3
Over 20.5: 66% · 1.80
Under 20.5: 34% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lukas Neumayer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Mili Poljicak ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 07/07 | Andrej Nedic Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Dusan Lajovic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Florian Broska Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 08/06 | Taro Daniel Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/06 | Michal Krajci Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/05 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Marko Topo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/07 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Troyes · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Leo Raquillet Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 24/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 08/06 | Federico Cina Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Emilio Nava Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/05 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 16/05 | Hugo Gaston ATP Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lukas Neumayer vs Marko Topo?
Our model gives 68% to Lukas Neumayer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.