Tennis · ATP Bastad · 12/07, 10:00
Prediction: Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Passaro
Maks Kasnikowski
Estimated games
23.5Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Passaro
7-3 (W-L)
Maks Kasnikowski
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Francesco Passaro
1–0
Maks Kasnikowski
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Passaro 1472 · Maks Kasnikowski 1524
| Francesco Passaro | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maks Kasnikowski (rating 1472 vs 1524).
- Head-to-head: Francesco Passaro 1–0 Maks Kasnikowski (1).
Statistics
| Francesco Passaro | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 40% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.5-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.4 | 12.3-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 0.8 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 75.3% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 31.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 50% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 50% · 1.83
H2H · Francesco Passaro 1 – 0 Maks Kasnikowski (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Francesco Passaro 1–0 Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09/23 Challenger Bad Waltersdorf | 2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Passaro
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/07 | Henri Squire Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 01/07 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Daniel Michalski Challenger Milan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Niels McDonald Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 23/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 16/06 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Parma · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 19/02 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 17/02 | Dino Prizmic ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/02 | Vilius Gaubas ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/02 | Elmer Moller ATP Rio De Janeiro · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Maks Kasnikowski
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Jerome Kym Challenger Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 06/07 | Federico Cina Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 04/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 03/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Andres Santamarta Roig Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Andy Andrade Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/06 | Jan Choinski Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 16/06 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Passaro vs Maks Kasnikowski?
Our model gives 53% to Maks Kasnikowski, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.