Tennis · ATP Bastad · 12/07, 12:00
Prediction: William Rejchtman Vinciguerra vs Lautaro Midon
Prediction summary
Winner
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Lautaro Midon
Estimated games
22.3Bet365 line 18.5
Recent form · 10 last
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
4-6 (W-L)
Lautaro Midon
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · William Rejchtman Vinciguerra 1430 · Lautaro Midon 1511
| William Rejchtman Vinciguerra | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lautaro Midon (rating 1430 vs 1511).
- Lautaro Midon is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: William Rejchtman Vinciguerra makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| William Rejchtman Vinciguerra | Lautaro Midon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 20% (5) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.6 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.5-11.9 | 12.4-10.9 |
| Aces | 3.2 | 3.1 |
| Double faults | 4.3 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 64.1% | 70.7% |
| Break % | 42.7% | 35.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3 · Bet365 line 18.5 · +3.8
Over 18.5: 75% · 1.83
Under 18.5: 25% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
William Rejchtman Vinciguerra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Amit Vales Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 01/07 | Stijn Paardekooper M15 Amstelveen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/06 | Romain Faucon Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 11/06 | Anton Shepp M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-11 | L |
| 10/06 | Filip Gustafsson M25 Varnamo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/05 | Taro Daniel Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/05 | Marko Miladinovic M25 Bol · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Caheer Warik M25 Bol · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/05 | Egor Pleshivtsev M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/04 | Andrea Colombo M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
Lautaro Midon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Zsombor Piros Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 06/07 | Radu Mihai Papoe Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/07 | Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Stefan Horia Haita Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 19-12 | W |
| 22/06 | Hugo Gaston Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/06 | Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 03/06 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 01/06 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Prostejov · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Vicenza · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in William Rejchtman Vinciguerra vs Lautaro Midon?
Our model gives 75% to Lautaro Midon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.